What is the TACO Index?
The TACO Index (Trump Always Chickens Out) is a real-time dashboard that tracks the probability of Trump backing down on his hardline Iran stance. It analyzes market pressure levels based on 6 key economic indicators: S&P 500, VIX Fear Index, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Oil Prices, Dollar Index, and Presidential Approval Rating.
Indicators
- S&P 500 – Market-cap weighted index of 500 large U.S. companies. Decline signals market instability.
- VIX Fear Index – S&P 500 options volatility index. Rising VIX indicates growing investor fear.
- 10Y Treasury Yield – U.S. government long-term borrowing cost. Surges add fiscal pressure.
- Oil (WTI) – West Texas Intermediate crude price. Spikes drive inflationary pressure.
- Dollar Index (DXY) – Dollar value against 6 major currencies. Sharp drops signal loss of confidence.
- Presidential Approval – RealClearPolitics polling average. Decline increases political pressure.
Risk Levels
- Lv.1 Safe – Market stable, policy likely to hold
- Lv.2 Caution – Some indicators deteriorating, monitoring needed
- Lv.3 Warning – Multiple indicators worsening, policy change probability rising
- Lv.4 Danger – Broad market pressure, policy reversal highly likely
Disclaimer
This dashboard is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or political prediction. Displayed data and scores are automatically calculated from publicly available market data, and accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.